Enigma in Oil Price Forecasting
Looking at the history of oil price (with three-year increments), one must admit (at least I will) to himself that there’s just no way to ‘forecast’ where the oil price is going. See the informative picture below.
For the past 154 years, Brent Crude oil price had reached >$100/barrel (USD) price at least four times.
Looking at the duration between the four, let’s decipher exactly how many years it took to the oil price reach those four episodes
I bet that those people in 1930-1960’s did not expect that oil price would reach near $40’s because during those decades, oil price had been just hovering the $15-25 per barrel range.
Anyhow, this is the oil price projections for the next year (2016) by the big banks. Forecast per quarter even.
“Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.” Warren Buffett
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